(Source From: tw.stock.yahoo0505)

Following last year's growth rate of 2.7% (the original estimate was 3.5%), according to the forecast of the World Trade Organization (WTO) headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, the growth rate of the total volume of global merchandise trade (merchandise trade) this year is higher than the previous one. It will slip to just 1.7% a year. In other words, although it is still in a state of expansion, the growth rate has been reduced by a full 1 percentage point. After the global financial tsunami broke out in 2008, the world's commodity trade was severely hit; since then, the average annual growth rate of the total global commodity trade has been 2.6%. And this year's growth rate is even 0.9 percentage points lower than the long-term average of the past 15 years.

 

▲ Inflation is the culprit:

 

According to the WTO, the rare global inflation (inflation) triggered by the post-pandemic period - the Ukrainian-Russian war broke out on February 24 last year, which caused the price of food and energy to rise. One of the main culprits of the current global economic and trade sluggishness is that inflation cannot fall, which leads to the shrinking of ordinary people's real income, thus reducing their willingness to consume.

 

In addition, in the post-epidemic period, due to factors such as the "epidemic stay-at-home economy", the original strong demand for electronic products has also disappeared; on the other hand, the reopening of society has made consumer demand, It also quickly shifted from commodities to service industries such as catering and sightseeing. These are also the reasons for the sluggish commodity trade in the world at this stage.

 

In March of this year, the increase in consumer prices in the United States compared with the same period of the previous year dropped to 5% from 6% in the previous month. However, in order to fight inflation, the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) and other central banks around the world have strongly raised interest rates, but they have impacted the recovery of the economic boom.

 

According to WTO estimates, the global economic growth rate this year will drop from 5.9% in 2021: last year it was 3%, and this year it may further drop to 2.4%. Among them, the 1% growth rate of the United States will not be maintained; Germany, the largest economy in Europe, and the United Kingdom are even more likely to fall into recession.

 

rebound next year

 

Such a development trend is naturally not conducive to the development of the international shipping market. Due to this impact, Taiwan's economic growth rate may not even be able to maintain 2% this year, because Taiwan's economy relies heavily on exports, and this area is currently dragging down Taiwan's economy.

 

In the longer term, today's increasingly rampant geopolitics (Geopolitics) confrontation situation, the damage caused to globalization (globalization) is also the cause of uncertainty in the international shipping market. Nevertheless, under the leadership of Evergreen Shipping (2603), Yang Ming Shipping Company (2609) and Wan Hai Shipping (2615) are the so-called "container trio" in Taiwan's stock market. There can also be a rebound.

 

However, according to WTO estimates, by next year, the growth rate of the total volume of global merchandise trade will have a chance to climb to a level of 3.2%. However, there are not all risks here; the potential risks include: the above-mentioned geopolitical confrontation situation, financial instability, and the high debts of various countries, etc., are enough to make international economic and trade activities fall into a downturn again.Following last year's growth rate of 2.7% (the original estimate was 3.5%), according to the forecast of the World Trade Organization (WTO) headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, the growth rate of the total volume of global merchandise trade (merchandise trade) this year is higher than the previous one. It will slip to just 1.7% a year. In other words, although it is still in a state of expansion, the growth rate has been reduced by a full 1 percentage point. After the global financial tsunami broke out in 2008, the world's commodity trade was severely hit; since then, the average annual growth rate of the total global commodity trade has been 2.6%. And this year's growth rate is even 0.9 percentage points lower than the long-term average of the past 15 years.

 

▲ Inflation is the culprit:

 

According to the WTO, the rare global inflation (inflation) triggered by the post-pandemic period - the Ukrainian-Russian war broke out on February 24 last year, which caused the price of food and energy to rise. One of the main culprits of the current global economic and trade sluggishness is that inflation cannot fall, which leads to the shrinking of ordinary people's real income, thus reducing their willingness to consume.

 

In addition, in the post-epidemic period, due to factors such as the "epidemic stay-at-home economy", the original strong demand for electronic products has also disappeared; on the other hand, the reopening of society has made consumer demand, It also quickly shifted from commodities to service industries such as catering and sightseeing. These are also the reasons for the sluggish commodity trade in the world at this stage.

 

In March of this year, the increase in consumer prices in the United States compared with the same period of the previous year dropped to 5% from 6% in the previous month. However, in order to fight inflation, the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) and other central banks around the world have strongly raised interest rates, but they have impacted the recovery of the economic boom.

 

According to WTO estimates, the global economic growth rate this year will drop from 5.9% in 2021: last year it was 3%, and this year it may further drop to 2.4%. Among them, the 1% growth rate of the United States will not be maintained; Germany, the largest economy in Europe, and the United Kingdom are even more likely to fall into recession.

 

rebound next year

 

Such a development trend is naturally not conducive to the development of the international shipping market. Due to this impact, Taiwan's economic growth rate may not even be able to maintain 2% this year, because Taiwan's economy relies heavily on exports, and this area is currently dragging down Taiwan's economy.

 

In the longer term, today's increasingly rampant geopolitics (Geopolitics) confrontation situation, the damage caused to globalization (globalization) is also the cause of uncertainty in the international shipping market. Nevertheless, under the leadership of Evergreen Shipping (2603), Yang Ming Shipping Company (2609) and Wan Hai Shipping (2615) are the so-called "container trio" in Taiwan's stock market. There can also be a rebound.

 

However, according to WTO estimates, by next year, the growth rate of the total volume of global merchandise trade will have a chance to climb to a level of 3.2%. However, there are not all risks here; the potential risks include: the above-mentioned geopolitical confrontation situation, financial instability, and the high debts of various countries, etc., are enough to make international economic and trade activities fall into a downturn again. (Source: tw.stock.yahoo0505)