The US fracking boom really did look like it could make the American Dream of complete independence from foreign oil supplies finally come true. It promised to squeeze every last drop of oil from the country’s bedrock and then flood the domestic and world markets with its own “Made in the USA” black gold. The excitement spread quickly from the US government to the multitude of fracking companies that shot up like mushrooms out of the ground and covered their own continent with a forest of drilling towers.

And now things have turned out to be much different and far worse than anyone could ever have predicted. The problem is not just lower profitability than expected and more limited export opportunities than forecast but a collapse in the price of oil that puts the viability of the extremely cost-intensive fracking technique in question. What is certain is that one of the biggest companies in the sector – gas and oil exploration equipment supplier Schlumberger – is planning massive job cuts: 9,000 jobs are under threat. It is just one answer to the falling oil price and the fear of lost contracts.

Others are now the winners: energy-intensive companies outside the oil industry can celebrate falling production costs. The logistics sector and chemical industry are dancing with joy and the share price of airline companies is taking off. The German economy is looking at the downward spiral in the price of oil as a shot in the arm for the economy worth billions. Consumers are enjoying low prices at the petrol pump and a welcome fall in heating costs.

It would be wrong, however, to indulge in schadenfreude and any spending frenzy should quickly be dampened. No one should expect the price of oil to stay low in the long term; just as no one in the US should have thought that the fracking boom could go on forever. It should now be clear that an unhappy ending awaits anyone who thinks that boom isn’t automatically followed by bust. A healthy dose of reality should accompany everything we do so that we can avoid being caught off guard when the unexpected happens. Only one thing seems certain: the oil age has not yet reached its peak.